Finesse Tax & Business Advisory explains what the Middle East conflict means for Australian fuel supply, interest rates and small business cash flow — and what to do now.

Published 23 March 2026, as the conflict entered its 25th day.

What’s happening

Since late February 2026, a military conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which around 20% of the world’s oil and gas normally flows. No commercial tankers are currently transiting it.
 
Australia doesn’t import directly from the Middle East, but we do buy most of our refined fuel from South Korean, Japanese and Singaporean refineries — which rely on Middle Eastern crude to run.

Earlier today it was announced that shipping of crude oil from one of the largest suppliers to these refineries will be cancelled for the month of April. This indicates there will be a flow on impact to our fuel supply in the coming months.

The likely flow-on effects for Australian businesses: 1. Fuel and transport costs rising — already happening at the bowser, will flow into freight costs over coming weeks 2. Broader inflation — anything imported or freight-dependent (which is most things) will cost more 3. Interest rate pressure — inflation data will flow through to RBA decisions over coming months. We are already seeing some fixed loan rates increase 4. Supply chain delays — particularly for imported goods, parts and equipment 5.Potential fuel availability issues – we are already seeing this in some suburbs and can expect to see this increasing

How long this lasts matters enormously. A quick resolution would be uncomfortable but manageable. A prolonged conflict of 3–6+ months would create genuine pressure on businesses — particularly those with tight cash flow, high staff costs, or significant fuel and freight exposure.

I’ve been monitoring the situation closely and while anything may happen, there are no indications that the situation is going to de-escalate or resolve in the short term.

What’s worth doing now
Here’s what I’d suggest for both employees and business owners — practical steps that make sense regardless of what happens in the coming weeks.

For everyone

• Keep your vehicle tank at least half full rather than running it down — avoid having to queue at stations during spot shortages
• Reduce unnecessary driving where you can — even small reductions help and save money when prices are elevated
• Order anything you were planning to buy online sooner rather than later — supply chains and delivery times may lengthen
• Keep a few extra weeks of pantry staples on hand — not panic buying, just sensible buffer stock
• Review your loans and seek advice with regards to your loan and interest rate options

For business owners 

The global situation is arriving on top of regulatory changes that were already creating pressure. Here’s what deserves your attention:

Review your cash position Know exactly how much cash you have on hand and how many weeks of operating costs it covers. If it’s less than 8 weeks, that deserves attention now.   Check your ATO obligations The ATO is actively pursuing debts and has tools including garnishee notices and Director Penalty Notices that they are using. If you have outstanding BAS, PAYG or super, get ahead of it before the economic environment tightens further.

Review your cost exposure Which of your costs are fuel or freight dependent? Which are imported? These are the ones that will move first and fastest. Understanding your exposure helps you plan pricing conversations with customers. Prepare for Payday Super From 1 July 2026, super must be paid every pay cycle — not quarterly. This removes your cash flow buffer. Now, while things are calmer, is the time to model what this means for your payroll timing.

Some actions you can take now:

• Review your debtors — economic stress causes slow payment. Tighten your follow-up process now before clients start stretching terms
• Think about pricing — if your input costs are rising, when is the right time to have that conversation with clients? Easier to do proactively than reactively
• If you have a credit facility or overdraft you don’t currently need — consider confirming it’s in place and accessible. Banks tighten during uncertainty
• Talk to your team — staff who are worried about fuel costs or cost of living are distracted. A calm, honest conversation goes a long way
• Consider whether transitioning to working from home is appropriate for your team – setting up before it becomes mandated or urgent will reduce the stress of the transition
• Create a cash flow budget and run some scenarios based on increasing costs, slow payments, reduced economic activity to determine any operating changes you need to implement

A word from our Director, Cheryl Cox 

I’m publishing this because I think you deserve to know what I’m seeing, not because I want to alarm you. The honest truth is: Australia is better placed than most countries. We produce our own food and have functioning supply chains. But the situation is moving faster than most people expected, and the economic effects are already arriving.

These economic effects will be real, and they’ll arrive before most people expect. The businesses that navigate this well will be the ones who looked honestly at their numbers now, tightened the right things, and made decisions from a position of clarity rather than pressure.

I will be offering support to businesses who require additional cash flow planning and decision making support in the coming months.

That’s exactly what I’m here to help with.

Support options available:
1. We offer Zoom and Telephone appointments. You don’t need to travel to our office.
2. Book a support call* via Calendly. www.calendly.com/cherylfinesse
3. Cash flow and business resilience programs* 

*Please note these services are fee-based