Finesse Tax & Business Advisory explains what the Middle East conflict means for Australian fuel supply, interest rates and small business cash flow — and what to do now.

Published 9 April 2026.

If the past 24 hour news cycle made your head spin you are not alone.

Contradicting headlines, narratives and reactions. In the last 24 hours alone: Ceasefire. Markets rally. Oil drops. Everything is fine. Or is it?

I’ve been tracking this conflict closely since it began in late February — paying attention to what’s actually happening on the ground rather than what’s making the headlines.

Here is my current assessment and more importantly, here is what you should be doing this week regardless of whether you run a business or household.

What is actually happening

The war between the US, Israel and Iran has caused the largest disruption to global oil supply since the 1970s. Australia imports more than 80% of its fuel from Asian refineries — primarily in South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia — and those refineries depend on Middle Eastern crude. When the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, that whole chain is affected, even though we don’t import directly from the Gulf.

A ceasefire was announced this week and markets reacted with relief. I want to be honest with you about what that ceasefire actually means. Both sides publicly claimed they agreed to different things. Israel continued striking Lebanon within hours of the announcement — one of the deadliest days of that conflict. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again in response. The talks scheduled to begin this week are facing positions so far apart that a quick resolution is unlikely.

The situation is also changing rapidly that it is possible the ceasefire has been officially broken by the time this gets to your inbox.

Markets reacted as though the crisis was resolved. Your household budget and business costs did not. The physical reality of fuel supply has not materially changed since Monday.

Australian fuel supply

The government has been reassuring us that fuel supply is secure. What they haven’t said clearly is that their confidence runs to mid-April.

Mid-April is next week. April 15.

No updated guidance has been provided for what comes after that. I’m not saying this to alarm you — I’m saying it because the businesses and households that prepare now will be in a much better position than those who wait for the pressure to become obvious.

The government’s own assistant foreign affairs minister has warned the economic shocks from this conflict will have a long tail — well beyond when the fighting ends.

What you should do this week

This is the most important part of this update. The support measures below exist right now. They are easier to access before you need them rather than when under stress.

For Everyone

1. Call your bank this week

The major banks have been directed to offer hardship assistance — including payment deferrals, loan restructuring and emergency credit limit increases. This support exists right now.

The sooner you reach out, the easier it is for banks to help. If your cash flow or household budget is feeling the pressure, one call this week is worth ten calls in May.

2. Review your budget against higher costs through July

The government’s excise cut has brought some relief — average unleaded is around $2.35 to $2.45 nationally right now. But diesel remains elevated and is forecast to stay that way.

Anyone with significant transport or fuel exposure in their day to day living should be modelling costs through at least July, not just the next few weeks.

For Business Owners or Sole Traders

1. The ATO Fuel Response Payment Plan — apply now, not when you need it

The ATO has launched a specific payment plan for businesses and sole traders whose costs have increased because of higher fuel or transport prices (both directly or indirectly).

You don’t have to be a trucking company to qualify. If your costs have risen because your suppliers, contractors or delivery providers are paying more for fuel, you may well be eligible.

Key terms:

• Three year payment commitment, equal monthly instalments, no upfront payment required
• ATO will consider remitting the General Interest Charge if instalments are paid on time and outstanding lodgements are brought up to date within three months
• Available to ABN holders until 30 June 2026 — apply via ATO Online Services for Business or through us

My strong suggestion: apply before you’re under pressure. A plan set up now while things are manageable gives you runway. Waiting until you’re behind means fewer options and more stress.

Information can be found on the ATO https://www.ato.gov.au/individuals-and-families/financial-difficulties-and-disasters/ato-fuel-response/ato-fuel-response-payment-plan

2. The $1 billion interest-free loan facility — be ready to move

The federal government has announced $1 billion in interest-free loans under the Economic Resilience Program for transport, freight, fuel, fertiliser and manufacturing businesses. The money has been allocated. The application process has not yet been published.

If your business fits this profile, get in touch with us now so your documentation is ready the moment details are released. These facilities tend to be exhausted quickly once applications open.

3. Heavy vehicle operators

The Heavy Vehicle Road User Charge has been reduced to zero for three months from April 1. If you run heavy vehicles, this is an immediate cost reduction.

Why the pump prices haven’t dropped

This is one of the questions I’ve been asked most this week.: when the oil prices drop why don’t we see prices drop at the bowser?

The honest answer is that the journey from a barrel of crude oil to fuel in your tank involves several steps, each with their own time lag. Crude oil is purchased weeks in advance, refined, shipped, stored and then distributed. The fuel in the ground at your local service station today was likely purchased and refined weeks (to months) ago. Retailers are selling through that more expensive stock before cheaper replacement arrives.

There’s also the currency factor. Australia buys oil in US dollars. The Australian dollar has weakened during this conflict, which partially offsets the benefit of a falling crude price at the refinery and import stage.

Diesel lags petrol even further. It’s sourced from a tighter global pool and our Asian refinery suppliers have reduced supply during the crisis. Replacement diesel is coming from further away at higher freight cost — which is why diesel hasn’t responded to the ceasefire news the way unleaded has.

The practical implication: even if the ceasefire holds and oil stabilises, expect pump prices to remain elevated for another four to eight weeks while lower-cost supply works through the chain. And if the ceasefire breaks down, prices will rise again much faster than they fell.

Plan for conditions worse than you expect

My honest suggestion is to plan around the possibility that the ceasefire doesn’t hold because the conditions that would break it are actively present right now. If things stabilise, you’ll be pleasantly surprised and your preparations will have cost you very little. If they don’t, you’ll be glad you acted in April rather than May.

• Keep your vehicle tank at least half full rather than running it down
• Keep a few extra weeks of pantry staples on hand — not panic buying, just a sensible buffer
• For businesses: review cash flow projections against higher costs through July
• Review your debtors — economic stress causes slow payment, so tighten your follow-up process now
• Think about pricing conversations with customers — easier to have proactively than reactively
• Don’t defer the ATO or bank conversations until the pressure is obvious

What we are watching

Peace talks are scheduled this week in Islamabad. If they produce a substantive framework the supply picture could stabilise and prices may ease further. If they collapse – which is plausible given how far apart the two sides remain – expect renewed escalation and oil price volatility.

We are watching this closely and will update you when the picture changes in ways that affect your situation.

Questions about your situation?

If any of this raises questions about your specific situation, whether the ATO Plan applies to you, how to approach your bank, and what this means for your business planning, get in touch as this is exactly what we are here for.

Support options available:
1. We offer Zoom and Telephone appointments. You don’t need to travel to our office.
2. Book a support call* via Calendly. www.calendly.com/cherylfinesse
3. Cash flow and business resilience programs* 

*Please note these services are fee-based